“Rich Man’s Lottery”? VERDAD CEO Rasmussen questions VC Business Model – Is he right?

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Rich Man's Lottery, is Rasmussen right?

  Verdad Capital founder and (small cap) public equity crusader Dan Rasmussen recently published a report authored by his last summer Harvard intern Blake Patterson. The melody of the article matches Rasmussen’s bias towards public – and his highly critical attitude towards private equities as reported this week among other sources by the NY Times. The newsletter report The Lure … Read More

“The Only Thing that Matters for a Start-Up”? Product Market Fit or: When Truisms and Misnomers Replace Judgement

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Like everybody else in the venture scene, I do admire Marc Andreessen for his remarkable achievements in both the tech and venture territories. Yet, admiration is no adulation. If justified, criticism might pay a better tribute to the man than endless quotations of some of his more questionable thoughts. On October 12, 2009 Marc posted a, now famous, article to … Read More

The VC Business Model: Pareto Driven to Extremes

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The VC Business Model: Pareto driven to extremes

Virtually all venture capitalists agree that only a very tiny fraction of their targets accounts for the positive overall return of their funds, while most investments produce either no significant contribution, or even result in complete losses, thus producing negative effects on fund returns. Depending on the individual fund, alternative target industries, investment stages, regional priorities etc. the statistics vary, … Read More

In B2B its’s 2D, not 3D, Dude! Check Lindera!

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Lindera

  Considering my modest financial means, I am actually quite heavily invested in 3D and VR. However, I must admit that now and then I ask myself: Where does all this craze about 3D and VR come from? Our “real” world is already 3D, is it not? And frankly: I do prefer a real reality to a virtual one. True, … Read More

Digitalisation

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Digitalisation

Ever heard a native speaker spell out “di-gi-ta-li-sa-tion”? I guess almost everybody has and almost everybody could have noticed then, that the syllable following the “l” gets somehow swallowed up the same way as the preceding “a” gets mumbled away.  The word does have a tongue twister capacity. This is presumably the main reason why people – unless they refer … Read More

bɪznəs ˈmɒd(ə)l

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Business Model Definitions

What is your business model? Ask any founder. The likelihood that you will have to listen to a fairly long-winded recap of the start-up’s 100 pages business plan or at least its pitch deck is larger than 80 per cent. Why is that so? First of all: There is no uncontested definition of what exactly amounts to a business model. … Read More

Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 3): Markowitz does not Work

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Markowitz does not work in the venture trade

I guess (in the course of my two most recent blogs) I have made my basic stance clear that standard portfolio theory fails as far as start-up portfolios are concerned. Let us, just for the sake of the argument 😉, assume Markowitz’s paradigm could somehow be applied, or rather, transferred onto the start-up stage. What would it look like? I … Read More

Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 2)

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Table with types of different intrinsic and extrinsic start-up success factors

Last week I expanded on the conventional venture capital wisdom related to the avoidance of too many bad lots (investment targets) in the bucket. The standard recipe to avoid these odds (apart from engaging in thorough due diligences) is to invest in a sufficient number of start-ups. Conventional VC wisdom has it that one needs to invest in at least … Read More

Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 1)

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Risk Mitigation in Venture Capital

Like in conventional asset management theory, the credo for the need of a “distribution of risk” or “risk diversification” is generally also considered to be inviolable in the venture business. In my opinion, the imperative is fairly nonsensical – at least when it is based on the number or the type of targets to be chosen. Within the asset class … Read More

Wrong Tests and Ill Fitting KPIs Should not be Held Against A/B Testing

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Ill Fitting KPIs are no Argument against A/B-Tests

This time @AndrewChen ’s Newsletter was somewhat weird. Under the heading “Conservation of Intent: The hidden reason why A/B tests aren’t as effective as they look, Andrew argues that measures which result from A/B testing and aim at improving conversion rates do not take into account that normal users among those who churn are statistically dominated by “low intent” minnows, … Read More