Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 3): Markowitz does not Work

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Markowitz does not work in the venture trade

I guess (in the course of my two most recent blogs) I have made my basic stance clear that standard portfolio theory fails as far as start-up portfolios are concerned. Let us, just for the sake of the argument ūüėČ, assume Markowitz’s paradigm could somehow be applied, or rather, transferred onto the start-up stage. What would it look like? I … Read More

Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 2)

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Table with types of different intrinsic and extrinsic start-up success factors

Last week I expanded on the conventional venture capital wisdom related to the avoidance of too many bad lots (investment targets) in the bucket. The standard recipe to avoid these odds (apart from engaging in thorough due diligences) is to invest in a sufficient number of start-ups. Conventional VC wisdom has it that one needs to invest in at least … Read More

Risk Mitigation in the Venture Trade (Part 1)

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Risk Mitigation in Venture Capital

Like in conventional asset management theory, the credo for the need of a “distribution of risk” or ‚Äúrisk diversification‚ÄĚ is generally also considered to be inviolable in the venture business. In my opinion, the imperative is fairly nonsensical ‚Äď at least when it is based on the number or the type of targets to be chosen. Within the asset class … Read More

Wrong Tests and Ill Fitting KPIs Should not be Held Against A/B Testing

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Ill Fitting KPIs are no Argument against A/B-Tests

This time @AndrewChen ‚Äôs Newsletter was somewhat weird. Under the heading ‚ÄúConservation of Intent: The hidden reason why A/B tests aren‚Äôt as effective as they look, Andrew argues that measures which result from A/B testing and aim at improving conversion rates do not take into account that normal users among those who churn are statistically dominated by ‚Äúlow intent‚ÄĚ minnows, … Read More

Merkel on German IIoT – Why Germany is on a Dangerous Path

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Johnny-Head-in-the-Air

I think Germany is lucky to have a physicist with some respectable track record as head of government. She is intrinsically motivated to push the country‚Äôs sadly lagging digital transformation and she does not like empty blab. Despite that she needs to tread very carefully. One ‚Äúwrong‚ÄĚ word might result in disastrous political or industrial effects. In last Friday‚Äôs first … Read More